Decisions, Decisions

Consulting and Seminars from

H.F. Lillywhite, Logical Learning and Consulting

503-649-7647 email: decisions@hfl-llc.com

The quality of our work and our lives depends, to a great extent, on the quality of the decisions we make.

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Basic Probability - two hours

Goals: 1. Understand basic probabilities.
2. Do simple probability calculations.
3. Understand statistical independence, dependence, and gamblers fallacy.
4. Understand sensitivity, specificity and base rate as they apply to probability and risk.

Probability is the tool that allows us to deal with uncertainty, lack of information and other common obstacles to making good decisions. While little is certain in this life, probability can help us understand risks and maximize the chance of a good outcome from our decisions. However it is also a very misunderstood subject. The Human mind does not naturally understand probabilities and only with training can we expect to use them wisely.

This seminar starts at a very basic level and is aimed as much at understanding concepts as at calculation. It will not make staticians out of participants, but will make them aware of the basics and of the common errors they should avoid in dealing with proability, uncertainty, and risk.

Participants should come prepared to discuss some decision they face at work or in personal life. This should be a decision where the outcome of various options is uncertain. We will take time to examine some of those problems and how we might apply probability to them.